Welcome to the weekly news bulletin by P Sundarayya Memorial Trust. News from September 19-25, 2026 below:

Policy News

India’s agriculture and geopolitics: A food security outlook
BusinessLine As global trade networks navigate heightened geopolitical volatility, food has evolved far beyond a conventional commodity into a critical instrument of statecraft, political legitimacy, and national security. For India, a global agricultural titan, this shift highlights a complex dual identity: it operates the world’s largest food welfare architecture while serving as a foundational pillar of international food supply. However, integrating domestic food sovereignty with global trade stability remains a defining policy challenge. Recent global shocks—ranging from pandemic-era disruptions and climate-induced yield crashes to the Russia-Ukraine conflict—have exposed the deep fragility of international food chains. In response, major economies have increasingly pivoted toward food nationalism, prioritizing domestic availability over external trade commitments. India’s recent trade policy adjustments mirror these realities. Protective measures, such as past restrictions on wheat and non-basmati rice exports, were implemented primarily to insulate domestic consumers from runaway inflation and safeguard local food security following weather anomalies and international price spikes. While vital for domestic stability, these ad-hoc measures introduce friction and unpredictability into international markets, complicating India’s aspiration to be viewed as a reliable, long-term trade partner. The domestic balancing act: Welfare and fiscal realities At home, India’s agricultural framework is anchored by the National Food Security Act (NFSA), which guarantees subsidized food grains to nearly 800 million citizens. While essential for social welfare, this massive distribution system creates immense fiscal demands. The heavy carrying costs of maintaining extensive buffer stocks strain public finances, often crowding out critical capital expenditure needed for agricultural research and development, climate-resilient crop varieties, and modern post-harvest infrastructure. Furthermore, the structural reliance on Minimum Support Prices (MSP) skewed predominantly toward water-intensive staples like rice and wheat has created secondary ecological imbalances. Over-procurement and intensive cultivation in core grain-belt states have severely depleted groundwater tables, posing long-term risks to the very resource base upon which India’s food security depends. This domestic necessity frequently places India at odds with multilateral trade architecture, particularly at the World Trade Organization (WTO). India’s public stockholding programs and price support mechanisms for farmers are frequently challenged by Western economies claiming market distortion. India’s persistent reliance on the WTO’s “Peace Clause” underscores a fundamental philosophical divide: for developing nations, food security and rural livelihoods are non-negotiable developmental priorities that supersede strict global trade rules, whereas developed nations seek predictable, market-driven certainties.

Cheap edible oil imports: A setback for farmers ahead of kharif harvest and rabi sowing
RuralVoice. The Government of India has reduced the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on major imported edible oils with a view to moderating domestic edible oil prices. The Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on crude sunflower oil has been reduced from 10% to nil, while the BCD on crude soybean oil and crude palm oil has been reduced from 10% to 5%. The government has simultaneously reduced the applicable BCD on the respective refined edible oils while maintaining an import duty differential of 19.25% between crude and refined edible oils. The duty cuts come just as arrivals of kharif oilseeds are set to increase. Early soybean harvesting has already begun in some areas, while groundnut is also expected to enter the market soon. Making imported edible oils cheaper at this stage could put additional pressure on domestic oilseed prices. Mustard farmers could also face a setback, particularly those who have been holding stocks in anticipation of better prices during the festive season. The price outlook before the rabi sowing season is particularly important because farmers use prevailing market prices as one of the signals when deciding which crops to plant. India meets nearly two-thirds of its edible oil requirement through imports, primarily palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower oil. Major suppliers include Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Russia and Ukraine. The country’s efforts to reduce this import dependence could face another setback this year. During the first 10 months of the 2025-26 oil year, from November to August, India’s edible oil imports rose by around 4.6% year on year, mainly due to higher imports of palm and soybean oil. According to SEA data, India imported 13.62 million tonnes of edible oils during November-August 2025-26, compared with 13.02 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous oil year.•

Rajasthan farmers sell moong below MSP as Govt yet to decide MSP purchase
BusinessLine. Rajasthan, the top producer of the Kharif season’s moong (green gram), has reported arrival of nearly 63,000 tonnes of the pulse crop from the fresh harvest since September 1 and it is nearly 10 times higher than the year-ago period. But farmers on an average have realised ₹7,452/quintal, which is lower by 15 per cent from its minimum support price of ₹8,780/quintal. Now that farmers complain about not receiving enough realisation and the government also effected the lowest increase (0.1 per cent) in moong MSP among all the Kharif crops for the 2026-27 season, leaders are thinking of creating an awareness campaign like mustard to improve realisation and if needed there may be a reduction in area next season. According to Agmarknet portal data, the average price at various mandis (agriculture market yards) in Rajasthan was about ₹7,000/quintal at the beginning of the month and strengthened to ₹7,960/quintal on September 17.•

Kerala plantation sector faces divergent fortunes amid climate, trade pressures
BusinessLine. Kerala’s plantation sector is navigating a year of sharply divergent fortunes, with strong prices for natural rubber and coffee offset by climate-related production losses and continued pressure on tea and cardamom, according to the Association of Planters of Kerala (APK). T R Radhakrishnan, Chairman, APK, said that natural rubber prices have risen from around ₹185 to ₹217 a kg, while coffee parchment prices have increased by more than 20 per cent. However, the price gains have been accompanied by lower output in both crops following erratic weather and lingering El Niño-related climate stress. The higher prices, according to him, should not be viewed entirely as a windfall, as part of the gains have compensated for reduced crop availability. The planters’ body has urged growers to use improved margins to invest in climate resilience, quality improvement and processing. Tea has faced a different set of challenges. While production has remained relatively stable, prices have been weakened by excess supply, subdued demand and a slower export market.At the same time, external developments are adding to the uncertainty. The earlier US tariff action had affected exporters, although a partial rollback had provided some relief. It is also monitoring proposed US legislation concerning tariffs on countries importing Russian oil. The implications would depend on whether the legislation becomes law and how it is implemented. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have also increased freight costs and affected shipping schedules for tea and premium cardamom exports. •

As sugar prices soar again, farmers ask: Who is really profiting?
TheWire. With sugar prices spiking to Rs 65 a kilo in parts of the country, sugar and sweets could soon become unaffordable for the common Indian in Amrit Kaal. Ironically, this surge in sugar prices comes in a year when India has recorded 500 million metric tonnes (MMT) of sugarcane production in 2025–26, roughly 43% higher than national production in 2015–16. How can a government-regulated food commodity experience a price increase of between 20% and 35%? If we examine the performance of the last two years – 2023–24 and 2024–25 – we find that both recorded lower sugarcane production than the current cycle. In May 2026, the government introduced a sugarcane control order, which many believed restricted traditional khandsari units and encouraged greater diversion of sugarcane towards ethanol. However, the official government position is that “it’s incorrect to attribute the recent increase in sugar prices to diversion of sugar for ethanol production”. The government has identified “lower estimates”, “red rot and top borer disease in sugarcane” and “waterlogging caused by excess rainfall” as key factors behind the price rise. Officially, the government also says that “despite the lower than estimated production, adequate sugar stocks are available in the country to meet domestic demand until the new crushing season begins in October”. This raises a question: Why has there been such an abnormal price spike if adequate stocks are available? When we spoke with people within the sugar economy, the picture began to become clearer. They point out that sugarcane farmers, having harvested their crop and sold it to sugar mills during the crushing season, are, by April, either waiting for outstanding dues or already compensated for their sugarcane deliveries. “So how is this price rise going to bring us profits,” asks Yudhvir Singh of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (Tikait), adding, “It is the hoarders of sugar who are profiting from it.” Singh also points out that there is no shortage of sugar in the country, since supplies remain constant in the market, even though it is selling at Rs 65–70 a kilo. The inference is clear: once the farmer sells the sugarcane, prices are determined by how stocks are being managed and released by traders. “If the government wants, it can use its agencies to identify hoarders and release stocks into the market. There is also reserve stock with the government, since sugar is an essential commodity,” said Singh. What he means is, sugar is available, but prices are rising because the supply is insufficient to meet demand at the previous prices.•

Movements

Booked for burning effigies on PM’s birthday, Gujarat farmers were, in fact, protesting against Adani power lines
TheWire. On the occasion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 76th birthday on September 17, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrated by organising commemorative events across the country. Governments in BJP-ruled states also engaged in these celebrations. Official functions were held, during which mandated ‘Aashirwad ka Diya (lamp of blessings)’ were also lit. These functions were mounted using taxpayers’ money. On the evening of September 17, farmers in Jetpar village of Morbi district in Gujarat registered their protest by burning effigies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah. Farmers there had been opposing a power project linked to the state’s BJP government and industrialist Gautam Adani for the past four months. Shortly after the incident, a complaint was filed by the inspector of the Morbi police station and a first information report was registered immediately against 21 farmers. According to the complaint, the accused individuals allegedly orchestrated a pre-meditated conspiracy to ignite a fire after sprinkling flammable liquid on a public road, thereby creating an atmosphere of terror. The complaint further charges them with disturbing public peace. Speaking to The Wire Hindi, protesting farmers have stated that although the police have registered cases against 21 farmers, the 21,000 farmers participating in the movement are equally prepared to go to jail. They asserted that “this FIR violates our constitutional right to peaceful protest.”•

Natural Disasters and Agriculture

More than half of India under dry or drought conditions as monsoon withdrawal begins
DowntoEarth. The southwest monsoon has begun its withdrawal but, as the rainy season draws to a close, drought conditions persist across more than half of India, with scientists warning that the current spell appears worse than the 2015-16 drought in its spread and persistence.  Some parts of the country have slipped into ‘extreme’ and ‘exceptional’ drought, even as El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization has said the event is firmly established and is expected to persist through February 2027, raising the risk of prolonged rainfall and temperature anomalies in several regions. Around 52 per cent of the country’s area was under dry or drought conditions as of September 16, according to the latest assessment by IIT Gandhinagar’s India Drought Monitor.  The data paints a worrisome picture, with the area under dry or drought conditions expanding rapidly — from 38.9 per cent about a month ago to 52.5 per cent by September 16, an increase of nearly 35 per cent.  “This drought looks worse than the 2015-16 drought,” said Karthikeyan Lanka, associate professor at IIT Bombay’s Centre for Climate Studies, who has been tracking agricultural drought conditions across the country.  He stressed that the comparison was qualitative, based on how the drought has evolved through the monsoon, particularly its persistence, geographical spread and the length of dry periods between spells of rain.•

India’s domestic fertiliser sales dip 10.33% in August on low rains
BusinessStandard. Total fertiliser sales in August 2026 were almost 10.33 per cent lower than in the same month last year, totalling 6.51 million tonnes, as the monsoon continued to play truant, with the cumulative all-India rainfall deficit recorded at 16.3 per cent for August. Though the uneven run is not fully reflected in overall kharif acreage numbers, which till September 11 were just around 1.45 per cent lower than in the same period last year and 0.72 per cent less than the normal acreage, which is the average area covered over the last five years, several experts and commentators said that more than total acreage, it is the per-hectare yields that will matter most from now.  The declining sales of fertilisers could also be a factor in the determination of final yields, but traders said the drop in sales could also be on account of excess stocking by farmers at the start of the season. The fertiliser sales data for the month of August also showed that, item-wise, sales of urea, the most-consumed fertiliser in India, were around 4.21 million tonnes, which was 3.66 per cent lower than last year. While di-ammonium phosphate, or DAP, sales were marginally higher at 1.03 million tonnes in August 2026, compared with 0.98 million tonnes in August 2025, sales of muriate of potash (MOP) and other complexes were around 10 per cent and 34 per cent lower, respectively, in August 2026 compared with the same month last year.•

Data

Karnataka announces Rs 2,500 aid for 50 lakh drought-hit farmers
RuralVoice. Karnataka has announced an interim input subsidy of Rs 2,500 per farmer for around 50 lakh drought-affected farmers as the state government awaits financial assistance from the Centre under the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF). The relief package will cost the state exchequer about Rs 1,250 crore. The announcement came on Thursday at the conclusion of the four-day special session of the Karnataka legislature, which was convened primarily to discuss the drought situation and the Dr K Kasturirangan report on the Western Ghats. Deputy Chief Minister and Revenue Minister G Parameshwara said 177 of Karnataka’s 240 taluks had been officially declared drought-hit. The government has made a preliminary assessment of drought-related losses at around Rs 40,000 crore and plans to submit a memorandum to the Centre seeking assistance under NDRF norms. He said the state would provide the Rs 2,500 input subsidy immediately, anticipating central assistance. The government has also extended the repayment moratorium on crop loans from 36 months to 60 months to provide additional relief to farmers facing financial stress.•

UP farmers to get loans at 6% interest under Krishak Samriddhi Yojana, announces CM Yogi 
RuralVoice. Small and marginal farmers in Uttar Pradesh will now be able to avail long-term loans at a reduced interest rate of six per cent under the Mukhyamantri Krishak Samriddhi Yojana. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath announced this at a programme held in Lucknow on Wednesday. Under the scheme, farmers previously had to pay interest at the rate of 11 per cent on loans. The state government has now announced a five per cent interest subsidy, bringing the effective interest rate down to six per cent.•

Gujarat puts 63.35 lakh farmers on digital registry; links Aadhaar to land records
BusinessLine. More than 63.35 lakh farmers have already been registered under the state’s Farmer Registry, which links their Aadhaar-based identity with verified land records. This registry, being implemented under the Centre’s Digital Agriculture Mission (DAM), is aimed at creating a single digital identity for farmers and simplifying their access to government agricultural schemes and services. The Farmer Registry links a farmer’s Aadhaar-based identity with land records, enabling eligible farmers to obtain a Unique Farmer ID. The digital identity is expected to reduce repeated submission and verification of personal and land-related documents while improving beneficiary identification and verification.•

India sets food production target at 178 million tonnes for rabi season
BusinessLine. The Indian government has fixed a Rabi (winter crop) production target of 177.72 million tonnes (mt) of foodgrains. This includes 121 mt of wheat, 17.20 mt of pulses and 22.30 mt of nutri/coarse cereals. As the monsoon rainfall this month (as on September 18) was deficient in major producing States of winter crops, except Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, the weather is going to play a major role in achieving the target amid a forecast of further strengthening of El Nino. Among the other rabi crops, the output target for gram (chana) has been set at 12.33 mt, lentil (masur) at 2.1 mt, mustard at 14.3 mt and barley at 2.42 mt. The production of these rabi crops during 2025-26 was – 120.66 mt of wheat, 18.11 mt of rice, 20.02 mt maize, 1.80 mt barley, jowar 3.01 mt, gram 12.51 mt, lentil 1.76 mt, mustard 13.77 mt and groundnut 0.76 mt. The rainfall during September 1-18 in Uttar Pradesh, the top producer of wheat, and in Madhya Pradesh, the second biggest in wheat and third largest in chana, was 8 per cent above normal, each. Whereas in the other two major wheat producing States, monsoon in Punjab was 56 per cent below normal and in Haryana 42 per cent deficient so far in this month. Rajasthan, the top producer of mustard and second in gram, has reported a deficiency of 8 per cent during September 1-18. In the top gram producing state of Maharashtra, the rainfall this month was 51 per cent less than normal.